Police Pay Has Fallen 19% Since 2010
A full inflation-adjusted analysis of UK police pay from 2010 to 2026, including historic awards, CPI comparison, and what the numbers actually mean for serving officers.
Analysis Snapshot
Has police pay fallen since 2010?
Yes. When adjusted for inflation, police officer pay in England and Wales remains approximately 15–19% lower in real terms compared to 2010 levels, depending on rank and inflation measure used (CPI vs CPIH). While recent pay awards have narrowed the gap slightly, full restoration has not yet occurred.
Key Metric: Between 2010 and 2026, cumulative CPI inflation reached approximately 48%, while average police pay awards over the same period totalled significantly less, creating a permanent gap in purchasing power.
What Does “19% Real Terms Cut” Actually Mean?
Understanding the "19% fall" requires looking past the cash figures on a payslip. In economic terms, there is a fundamental difference between nominal pay (the cash value) and real pay (the purchasing power).
Nominal Pay
The face value of your salary. If your salary grows from £36k to £48k, your nominal pay has increased by 33%.
Real Pay
The inflation-adjusted value. It measures how many loaves of bread, litres of fuel, or mortgage payments that salary can actually buy.
The 2010 vs 2026 Calculation
To understand the erosion, we use a simple economic comparison. If we take a standard Constable's salary from 2010 and "re-value" it into 2026 money using the Consumer Price Index (CPI), we see the shortfall:
The Measurement Debate: CPI vs CPIH
The 19% figure is often generated using the Consumer Price Index (CPI). If we use CPIH (which includes owner-occupier housing costs), the gap is slightly smaller but still sits in the high-teens. If we were to use the older Retail Price Index (RPI), which is often used for rail fares and student loans, the reported pay cut would be closer to 25–30%.
By using the ONS baseline of 2010, analysts highlight the shift from the "pre-austerity" settlement to the modern regulatory environment.
Historic Police Pay Awards 2010–2026
| Financial Year | Pay Award % | CPI Inflation (Actual/Forecast) | Real Terms Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2.55% | 3.3% | -0.75% |
| 2011 | 0.0% (Pay Freeze) | 4.5% | -4.50% |
| 2012 | 0.0% (Pay Freeze) | 2.8% | -2.80% |
| 2013 | 1.0% (Cap) | 2.3% | -1.30% |
| 2014 | 1.0% (Cap) | 1.5% | -0.50% |
| 2015 | 1.0% (Cap) | 0.3% | +0.70% |
| 2016 | 1.0% (Cap) | 1.0% | 0.00% |
| 2017 | 2.0% (Bonus element) | 2.6% | -0.60% |
| 2018 | 2.0% | 2.3% | -0.30% |
| 2019 | 2.5% | 1.7% | +0.80% |
| 2020 | 2.5% | 0.9% | +1.60% |
| 2021 | 0.0% (Public Sector Freeze) | 2.5% | -2.50% |
| 2022 | £1,900 (Avg 5%) | 7.9% | -2.90% |
| 2023 | 7.0% | 6.8% | +0.20% |
| 2024 | 4.75% | 2.2% | +2.55% |
| 2025 | 4.2% | 3.5% (Forecast) | +0.70% |
| 2026 | 2.8% (Forecast) | 2.0% (Forecast) | +0.80% |
The table above reveals the specific periods of "structural erosion." Between 2010 and 2017, there was only one year where pay actually outpaced inflation. The compounding effect of multiple negative years (2011: -4.5%, 2012: -2.8%, 2013: -1.3%) created a massive hole that even recent high-percentage awards (like the 7% in 2023) struggle to fill.
The 1% Cap Era
The period from 2013 to 2016 is often referred to as the 1% cap era. While meant to manage public spending, it ignored the fact that essential costs—housing, energy, and National Insurance—continued to climb at a faster rate, effectively meaning officers were taking a stealth pay cut every September.
The Compounding Effect
Why is a 1% pay rise during 3% inflation so damaging? Mathematically, the loss is compounding. A person's standard of living is defined by the cumulative sum of these gaps over time.
- 01 Year 1: A 2% shortfall reduces your base purchasing power.
- 02 Year 2: Any subsequent pay rise is now calculated against a base that is already 2% "weaker" than it should be.
- 03 The Result: After 10 years of trailing inflation by even 1% per year, the total loss of purchasing power is much greater than 10%—it is approximately 11.5% due to the compound drag.
2010 vs 2026 Rank Comparison
PC (Step 0)
PC (Top Step)
Sergeant (Top)
Inspector (Top)
Superintendent
Note: 2010 salaries were "re-valued" into 2026 equivalents based on cumulative CPI. The actual "gap" feels larger for new joiners (Step 0) due to structural changes in introductory pay scales during the mid-2010s.
Has The Gap Started To Close?
Between 2022 and 2025, police officers received some of the highest headline pay awards in a generation: 5%, 7%, and 4.75%. On paper, this looks like a significant effort to restore pay.
The Inflation Absorbance
The problem is timing. The 7% award in 2023 was delivered during a period where inflation peaked at over 10%. While the award was "high," it actually resulted in another real-terms decrease in purchasing power for that specific financial year. Only in 2024 and 2025 has pay award growth actually moved ahead of the inflation line.
The gap has stopped widening, but it is not yet "healing" at a rate that would return officers to the 2010 baseline anytime within the current decade at current award levels.
The Take-Home Trap
Why 19% "Down" Feels Like 30% "Down"
While headline gross salary has fallen 19% in real terms, many officers report their actual "bank balance reality" feels significantly worse. This is due to secondary factors that erode take-home pay independently of inflation:
- Pension Contributions
In 2010, the 1987 scheme contribution was approximately 11%. Today, many pay 13.44%. That 2.44% shift is a direct reduction in net pay.
- Tax Band Freeze
Fiscal drag means that as pay rises (nominally), more of your salary is pulled into higher 40% tax brackets because those brackets haven't moved with inflation.
- NI Increases
Changes to National Insurance thresholds and rates over the last decade have created additional friction on every payslip.
- Allowance Freezes
Regional and special priority payments were frozen for years, significantly reducing their value as a percentage of total income.
The Public Sector Context
Policing is not the only sector to suffer real-terms erosion, but the trajectory has been steeper than many alternatives. Analysis shows that while private sector earnings remained stagnant following 2008, they have recovered significantly faster than the "capped" public sector roles.
In many Northern European and North American jurisdictions, police pay is strictly indexed to inflation benchmarks within collective bargaining agreements. The UK's reliance on the Police Remuneration Review Body (PRRB) and the lack of strike rights means that police pay has functioned as a "macroeconomic shock absorber" relative to more unionised sectors.
What Would “Full Restoration” Look Like?
If the government aimed to restore police pay to its 2010 real-terms value, the 2026/27 pay scales would need to look radically different. This is a purely logical modelling exercise based on ONS inflation paths:
Current Gap: £9,200/year
Current Gap: £10,800/year
To achieve this in one go, a pay award of approximately 18–20% would be required. In the current economic climate, analysts expect any "restoration" to occur via multi-year settlement deals of 1–2% above inflation over a decade.
Financial Context FAQ
Has police pay fallen 19% since 2010?
Yes. When adjusted for CPI inflation, the cumulative erosion of police pay between 2010 and 2026 is estimated at approximately 15–19% for most ranks. While recent awards have been higher, they have not yet compensated for a decade of freezes and sub-inflationary caps.
What is real terms pay?
Real terms pay is your salary adjusted for inflation (the cost of living). It measures your actual purchasing power—what your money can actually buy—rather than just the cash figure on your payslip.
How is police pay inflation calculated?
Economists typically use the Consumer Price Index (CPI) or CPIH (which includes housing costs) to measure inflation. This is compared against the cumulative percentage increases in the police pay scales over the same period.
Has police pay kept up with inflation?
No. Since 2010, the cost of goods and services has risen significantly faster than police pay awards. This means a Sergeant or Constable today has significantly less purchasing power than an officer in the same rank did in 2010.
Will police pay be restored to 2010 levels?
Full 'restoration' would require a double-digit consolidated pay award above and beyond standard annual increases. While the PRRB and Federation discuss this, government fiscal policy has not yet committed to a full restoration roadmap.
Is the 19% pay cut figure accurate?
The 19% figure is a widely cited estimate from independent economic analysis (such as the Social Market Foundation). The exact figure varies slightly depending on whether CPI or RPI is used, and which rank is being analysed.
How does this compare to other public sector roles?
Police pay has fallen further in real terms than many other public sector roles, partly due to the lack of industrial rights and the specific timing of pay freezes applied to the service between 2010 and 2017.
Methodology & Sources
This report utilises data from the following authoritative sources to calculate real-terms erosion:
- Home Office Pay Circulars (Pol): Historical datasets for E&W pay scales 2008–2025.
- Office for National Statistics (ONS): Monthly CPI and CPIH index datasets for inflation benchmarks.
- Social Market Foundation (SMF): Independent benchmarking reports on public sector pay trends.
- Police Remuneration Review Body (PRRB): Annual evidence submissions and final recommendation reports.
Calculations assume an officer at the top of the pay scale to avoid conflating incremental progression with cost-of-living awards. Inflation re-valuation is performed using standard compound interest formulas based on the ONS CPI index values for September of each recorded year.
Police Pay Rise
2026/27 Forecast
Essential Data
Police Pay
Scales Explained
Independent Pay Analysis
Police pay data is often debated in headlines. We publish regulation-based, neutral analysis grounded in official figures.
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