Police Pay vs
Inflation Calculator
This calculator estimates how police pay has changed in real terms since 2010 by comparing salary growth against inflation.
“Real terms” means purchasing power. If inflation rises faster than pay, you are worse off even if your headline salary is higher. This tool provides a simplified estimate and is designed for clarity, not payroll accuracy.
Independent estimate. Uses public inflation indices and published pay scales. Not affiliated with any police force, staff association, PRRB, Home Office or government body.
Calculation Settings
Models basic pay at top of scale for 2010 vs 2025.
Inflation Metric
Leave blank to use official CPI historical data.
Real Terms Change
A shortfall of £8,190.855 per year.
Nominal Change
+32.1%
Cash term increase
Inflation Cost
+54.5%
Rising cost of living
The Equivalent Salary
To have the same purchasing power today as you did in 2010, your current salary would need to be:
This calculation accounts for the compounding effect of CPI over 15 years.
Modeling Assumptions
Base Data
2010 figures use the top point of the prevailing pay scales. 2024/25 figures use top points effective from 1 Sept 2024.
Allowances
London and SE allowances are modeled as static additions to base pay for comparison purposes.
Inflation
Official ONS CPI and RPI series are used unless overridden. 2025-2026 data includes consensus forecasts.
Sensitivity Note: CPI (Consumer Price Index) generally yields lower inflation than RPI (Retail Price Index). Most pay negotiations refer to CPI, but RPI often better reflects housing costs.
What "Real Terms Pay" Means
Real terms pay is the value of your salary after adjusting for the cost of living. It tells you what your money is actually worth in the real economy.
If your salary is £40,000 in 2010 and inflation is 50% over the next decade, you would need to earn £60,000 just to maintain the exact same standard of living. If you only earn £55,000, your pay has fallen in real terms despite the £15,000 headline "rise".
Why Police Pay Can Rise But Feel Worse
Fiscal Drag
Pay rises can push you into higher tax brackets, meaning you keep less of every extra pound earned.
Compounding Inflation
Inflation is cumulative. A 5% fall one year and a 5% rise the next does not return you to your original position.
Static Allowances
If base pay rises but London Weighting or regional allowances remain frozen, your total real terms value drops.
CPI vs RPI Explained
CPI (Consumer Prices Index)
The government's official measure. It tracks the price of a 'basket' of goods but excludes mortgage interest payments. It is typically lower than RPI.
RPI (Retail Prices Index)
Includes housing costs and mortgage interest. Because it reflects household spending more broadly, it usually reports higher inflation and is often used by trade unions in pay negotiations.
Increments vs Pay Awards
It is a common misconception that annual increments protect against inflation. They do not.
Increments are rewards for experience and competency progression within a rank. They stop once you reach the top of the scale. A pay award is an adjustment to the entire scale to account for inflation. If you rely on increments to keep up with the cost of living, you are effectively using your career progression to pay for inflation — something your private sector counterparts rarely have to do.
Frequently Asked Questions
Quick answers to common queries on real terms pay.
• Has police pay fallen in real terms since 2010?
Yes. Independent analysis suggests that when adjusted for inflation (CPI or RPI), the purchasing power of police salaries has declined since 2010. While headline pay has increased in cash terms, these increases have generally not kept pace with the rising cost of living over the long term.
• What is real terms pay?
Real terms pay is your salary adjusted for inflation. It measures your actual purchasing power—what your money can actually buy in the real economy. If your pay rises by 2% but inflation is 5%, your real terms pay has actually fallen by 3%.
• What is the difference between CPI and RPI?
CPI (Consumer Prices Index) is the lead measure of inflation used by the government and ONS. RPI (Retail Prices Index) includes housing costs like mortgage interest and typically reports a higher rate of inflation. Many unions and associations prefer RPI for wage comparisons because it often reflects 'real world' costs more closely.
• Does overtime affect real terms pay?
Overtime increases your take-home pay but does not change the 'real terms' value of your base salary. Relying on overtime to maintain purchasing power effectively means working more hours to earn the same standard of living as previously enjoyed on base pay.
• Do increments count as pay rises?
Technically, increments are 'pay progression' based on experience and competency, not 'pay rises' intended to match the cost of living. A true pay rise is a cost-of-living award applied to the entire pay scale.
• Is police pay nationally set?
Yes. Police pay in England and Wales is determined nationally following recommendations from the Police Remuneration Review Body (PRRB). While some allowances (like London Weighting) vary by force, the base pay scales are standardized.
• Does London weighting change the real terms story?
London Weighting provides a higher cash income to reflect the cost of living in the capital, but if the weighting itself is not uprated in line with inflation, its real terms value also erodes over time.
• Why does take-home pay feel lower even when salary rises?
This is often due to 'fiscal drag'—where pay rises push you into higher tax brackets or reduce the value of personal allowances—combined with rising pension contributions and national insurance costs that can eat into headline increases.
• Is the 2026 pay award likely to match inflation?
Forecasts for 2026 suggest an award between 2% and 3.5%. Whether this matches inflation depends on economic conditions at the time. Historically, many awards since 2010 have fallen short of matching full cumulative inflation.
• Where can I check my current pay point?
You can find your current pay point on your latest payslip or by checking your rank's pay scale against your years of completed service in that rank. Our Pay Scales Explained guide provides a full breakdown of these points.
Related Resources
Pay & Earnings Hub
The central resource for all police pay guidance.
Real Terms Pay Guide
In-depth analysis of pay trends since 2010.
Pay Scales Explained
Every rank and pay point breakdown.
Salary Calculator
Calculate your current take-home pay.
Overtime Calculator
Model your additional earnings.
Pay Rise 2026 Forecast
What the future holds for police pay.