Early Release
and Your Duties, Rest and Pay
About 4,500 releases are planned in 10 tranches to June 2027. Here is what is confirmed, what nobody has published yet, and what your rest day, overtime and rest rights say if the extra work lands on your team.
Independent information, not advice · Last updated 4 October 2026 · England and Wales
Tranche 1 began on 1 October. No official police workload figure has been published.
The release numbers below are the Ministry of Justice's own modelled estimates. How many people are recalled, and how much demand reaches forces, is not in any government document we found. We say so where it matters rather than guess.
Releases under the new progression model started on 1 October 2026: 700 in the first tranche and about 4,550 across ten tranches to June 2027 (MoJ estimate). People released are on licence and can be recalled for breach or risk, which is where forces and probation pick up work. If extra demand means a cancelled rest day, you are paid at 1.5x (constables and sergeants) when the notice is under 15 days; with 15 days or more you get another rest day instead. Overtime is time and a third. Your 11-hour daily rest still applies unless operational need temporarily overrides it.
What changed on 1 October 2026
The Sentencing Act 2026 brought in a "progression model" for people serving standard determinate sentences. It changes the point at which they are released, so that prison places are kept available for the courts. The date from which the model applies, and the date of the first tranche of releases, was 1 October 2026.
Certain offenders are excluded because of the offence. GOV.UK lists the exclusions in its guidance for victims, and the Ministry of Justice estimates that 1,400 people who would otherwise have qualified are ineligible across the ten tranches. Anyone released remains under licence: they must follow conditions set by probation, and can be recalled to custody where they breach them or where their risk can no longer be safely managed in the community.
Nothing in the progression model changes Police Regulations. Your rest day, overtime and rest entitlements are the same on 4 October as they were on 30 September. What can change is how often a force needs to use the flexibility those rules already allow.
The ten tranches: Ministry of Justice estimates
The Ministry of Justice published modelled estimates on 30 August 2026. They describe the number of people expected to be released on the first day of each tranche. The first was 1 October 2026 and the last starts on 8 June 2027. MoJ says these are modelled estimates rather than precise numbers, because sentencing, outstanding proceedings and behaviour in custody all affect who is eligible.
| Tranche | Estimated releases | Ineligible (offence exclusions) | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (1 Oct 2026) | 700 | 50 | |
| 2 | 650 | 100 | |
| 3 | 650 | 150 | |
| 4 | 550 | 200 | |
| 5 | 600 | 200 | |
| 6 | 500 | 300 | |
| 7 | 200 | 150 | |
| 8 | 200 | 200 | |
| 9 | 250 | 100 | |
| 10 (to June 2027) | 250 | 50 | |
| Total | 4,550 | 1,500 |
Source: Ministry of Justice, estimated progression model tranche release volumes, 30 August 2026. Individual tranche dates after the first are given by month in the volume estimates. The estimates use a snapshot of the prison population taken on 4 March 2026.
Where the demand lands, and what is not known
Release itself is a prison and probation process. Police work arrives later, through the licence conditions that follow, and it varies by area because people go back to the places they are released to.
- Recalls. Where a person on licence breaches a condition, or probation judges their risk can no longer be managed in the community, they can be recalled to custody. A recall is requested by probation and the person is then taken back into custody, which is often a task for the force.
- Breaches and enquiries. Licence breaches that are also criminal offences become ordinary police investigations. How many is unknown.
- Safeguarding and offender management. People released for offences with a victim in the community can mean extra risk work, such as checks and information sharing with probation and partner agencies. Which individuals this affects is not published.
The Ministry of Justice's volume estimates do not model recalls. We have not found an official figure for how many extra police hours the model will create, and estimates quoted in the press and by staff bodies use their own methods. Where you see a figure for "police time", look for the method.
If the extra work reaches your team: your rights
A force can ask officers to work flexibly when demand rises. The rules below set what that costs the force and what you are owed. These come from Police Regulations 2003 and the Working Time Regulations 1998; your local policy may add to them but cannot take them away.
| Situation | What the rules say | Read more |
|---|---|---|
| Rest day cancelled, under 15 days' notice | Constables and sergeants are paid time and a half (1.5x) for hours worked on the rest day. Inspectors and chief inspectors get a day's leave in lieu within 12 months. (Annex H) | Rest day guide |
| Rest day, 15 days' notice or more | You are given another rest day instead of extra pay. (Annex H) | Rest day guide |
| Kept on after shift, recalled, or started early | Constables and sergeants: overtime at time and a third (1.33x), in 15-minute units. (Annex G) | Overtime explained |
| Short-notice change to your shift | Depends on notice and what is lost. Changes that remove rest days or extend hours can carry pay consequences. | Shift changes |
| Rest between shifts | Normally 11 hours daily rest and a weekly rest period. Operational need can temporarily reduce this, with compensatory rest to follow. | Working time |
Overtime and rest day rules differ by rank. Annex G overtime applies to constables and sergeants only. If you are unsure which applies to you, ask your force payroll team or Federation representative.
Worked example: what a cancelled rest day is worth
Take a constable at the top of the scale on £52,015. That is our calculated 2026/27 figure (2025/26 official pay plus 3.5%) because the official table was not published at 4 October 2026. The hourly rate is annual pay × 6/12520, which gives about £24.93.
Basic hour
£24.93
Overtime (1.33x)
£33.24
Rest day, short notice (1.5x)
£37.39
Ten hours on a rest day cancelled at under 15 days' notice is therefore about £373.91 gross at 1.5x. Overtime is taxed as income, so the take-home figure is lower. Put your own pay point in the overtime calculator to see it after tax and pension.
Fatigue and welfare
Short-notice duty, cancelled rest days and long runs of days without a break are the combination that wears people down fastest, and a steady monthly flow of tranches can mean a long period of it rather than one busy week. Your force has a duty to consider fatigue and you have a right to say you are not fit to work safely.
- Read what shift work does to thinking and judgement and when to speak up.
- Keep a note of dates, notice given and hours worked. It makes any later pay or rest query much easier to settle.
- If it is affecting your health, see the support services directory.
What we could not verify
- Police time estimates. A figure of £480m of police time has been attributed to the National Police Chiefs' Council in press coverage. We could not find the estimate or its method in a primary source, so we have not used it.
- Recall numbers. Not modelled in the Ministry of Justice document.
- Actual releases. The table above is the modelled estimate. The actual number released in a tranche can differ.
- Force-level impact. We have no force-by-force data. It will depend on where people are released to.
- Funding. We found no announcement of extra police funding linked to the model. If one is made, this page will be updated.
Has the extra work reached your team yet? Tell us what you are seeing, without naming individuals or cases. Anything we publish will be summarised from what readers tell us, never invented.
Early release: FAQs
When did early prisoner release start?
The progression model applied from 1 October 2026, the date of the first tranche of releases. GOV.UK says there are 10 tranches, the last starting on 8 June 2027.
How many prisoners will be released?
The Ministry of Justice's modelled estimate, published on 30 August 2026, is 4,550 releases across the 10 tranches, with 700 in the first. MoJ calls these modelled estimates rather than precise numbers. It also estimates 1,500 people would otherwise have qualified but are ineligible because of the offence exclusions.
Can my rest day be cancelled because of extra demand?
Yes, a force can require duty on a rostered rest day, but the notice period decides what you are paid. With less than 15 days' notice, constables and sergeants are paid time and a half (1.5x) for the hours worked. With 15 days' notice or more you are given another rest day instead of extra pay. Inspectors and chief inspectors get a day's leave in lieu within 12 months. See the rest day guide linked below.
Is overtime from extra recall work paid at a higher rate?
Overtime for constables and sergeants is paid at time and a third (1.33x) under Annex G, in units of 15 minutes. Rest day working at under 15 days' notice is 1.5x. The calculator on this site works out both.
Do I still get 11 hours' rest between shifts?
Normally yes, under the Working Time Regulations 1998, but operational necessity can reduce it temporarily, in which case compensatory rest should follow. Opting out of the 48-hour average week does not remove daily or weekly rest. Read the working time guide for the detail.
Does the Ministry of Justice say how many will be recalled?
Not in the volume estimates we read. The document published on 30 August 2026 sets out release numbers and does not model recalls. GOV.UK says people released under the model are on licence and can be recalled to custody where they breach conditions or where their risk can no longer be safely managed in the community. Any figure for recall numbers or police demand is therefore an estimate from someone else.
Has the number of officers or police funding changed because of this?
We have not found a government announcement of extra police funding linked to the progression model, and we have not repeated claims either way. Funding is a matter for the Home Office settlement. Check your force and your Federation branch for local statements.
Sources and how we checked them
Figures were read from the sources below on 4 October 2026, primary sources first. Spotted something out of date? See our corrections policy.
- Ministry of Justice: Estimated progression model tranche release volumes (30 August 2026) — Tranche table: 4,500 releases, 700 in tranche 1, 1,400 ineligible because of offence exclusions. Modelled estimates, based on a 4 March 2026 snapshot. Recalls not modelled.
- GOV.UK: Progression model, changes to prison release arrangements — First tranche 1 October 2026; licence conditions and recall for breach or risk.
- Police Regulations 2003, Annex G (overtime) and Annex H (rest days and public holidays) — Time and a third for overtime; 1.5x or another rest day for rest day duty depending on notice. Applied on our overtime explainer.
- Working Time Regulations 1998, regulations 10 and 11 — Daily and weekly rest, and the operational exceptions.
On this topic elsewhere
Disclaimer
PolicePay is independent and not affiliated with the Ministry of Justice, the Home Office, any force or any staff association. This page explains published rules and estimates; it is not legal, pay or operational advice and takes no position on the policy. Details are as checked on 4 October 2026.